BC’s Provincial Migration Dips for the Second Year in a Row, But Should Bounce Back Towards Moderate Levels Through to 2020

BC’s Provincial Migration Dips for the Second Year in a Row, But Should Bounce Back Towards Moderate Levels Through to 2020

Annual Interprovincial Migration into British Colombia (measured from June YR1 to July Yr2) fell for the second year in a row in 2018, from 15,433 to 10,719 – a net change of -30.5%.

While the previous drop can be namely accounted to a fall in positive net provincial migrations from Ontario and Quebec, this latest dip can be mainly attributed to a steep drop in positive net provincial migrations from Alberta (which fell from 10,277 in 2017 to 4,626 in 2018).

This drop was expected by Knew Realty Research given our study of the 2018 trends to-date and the current predictions of our net interprovincial forecasting model; a model which uses the comparative economic strengths of British Columbia’s economy to that of other Western Provinces to point forecast net interprovincial migration movements into the province – strengths that have become much more balanced in 2018.

Notably, under the current comparative provincial real GDP growth outlooks of top Canadian banks and economic think tanks this same model is predicting higher levels of provincial net migrations into the province of BC for 2019 and 2020, but levels that are non-the less moderate by comparison to those recorded from 2015 to 2017.

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